Regardless of your attitude toward President Obama, his policies will have an affect on the financial markets, both internationally and domestically. His desire to bring change to the United States will, by extension, bring change to the world due to our huge economic foot print.
How do you need to think regarding your investment portfolio - both taxable and retirement accounts - now that we will have new policies under President Obama?
1. Taxes will matter: We still don't have the details of how the tax code will be changed, but indications have been that at least some of the population (which targets the investing population) will see an increase in taxes on dividends and capital gains. If, for example, you pay a 20% or 25% rate of tax on capital gains instead of a 15% (or less), it is clear that there will be less money to reinvest or to live on after taxes are paid. Dividend rated could go up as high as 35% which will really kill the benefit of dividend paying stocks and bonds. So, you may want to consider the incorporation of tax free municipal bonds (but then with municipalities gong broke, be sure you look before your leap). Discuss tax management with your Advisor on the rest of your portfolio. Tax managed passive mutual funds have an extremely low tax impact.
2. You can't fool Mother Nature or the Capital Markets, they work: Turn on your TV any week-end and you will hear the "gurus" announcing which sectors or industries will boom under the Obama Administration and which will go bust. Academicians have shown over and again that such attempts to combine stock picking with market timing almost never outperform the broad market - the truth is they generally underperform. When they do outperform it is usually just plain luck rather than skill that can be exploited for profits and this it is not repeatable. Financial markets are essentially efficient and any attempt to regulate trade or change tax policy will end up being priced into the securities as soon as the news hits the wires.
3. Remove uncertainty by Diversification: Risk is really the uncertainty of future outcomes when investing. Diversification will reduce the uncertainty of a given portfolio. Lets assume you have a fund with 3500 stocks in it. A couple of those happen to be Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. With that many companies in your portfolio, you will hardly notice it as those two companies go out of existence. On the other hand, if you have a mutual fund of only financial companies, you will feel it big time. See what I mean? You can reduce the risk of uncertainty through very broad diversification.
4. Risk level and Return level are inseparable: Over longer time periods, stocks outperform bonds, but not in all time periods. Over longer time periods, bonds outperform cash, but not in all time periods. It is also true that small stocks, over time, outperform large stocks, but not in all time periods - and over time Value stocks outperform Growth stocks, but not in all time periods. To obtain the higher long term returns one must accept the higher risk of higher performing asset classes.
5. Portfolio Structure Determines Performance: Investing your portfolio along size, value and market exposure dimensions is primarily what determines the results of a diversified investment portfolio. To increase the expected results of your portfolio, own low cost, globally diversified asset class mutual funds that are over-weighted to small and more value oriented stocks. If a 100% stock portfolio is too risky for you, add some high quality short term bonds to it to reduce the volatility - of course, it will also reduce your expected return.
In order to win the loser's game, follow academically sound investment principles will allow you to win during an Obama Presidency. Don't give in to the Wall Street marketing gurus who have proven just how effective they are at separating you from your money, quickly and permanently. Can anybody say, Bernie Madoff? - 21511
How do you need to think regarding your investment portfolio - both taxable and retirement accounts - now that we will have new policies under President Obama?
1. Taxes will matter: We still don't have the details of how the tax code will be changed, but indications have been that at least some of the population (which targets the investing population) will see an increase in taxes on dividends and capital gains. If, for example, you pay a 20% or 25% rate of tax on capital gains instead of a 15% (or less), it is clear that there will be less money to reinvest or to live on after taxes are paid. Dividend rated could go up as high as 35% which will really kill the benefit of dividend paying stocks and bonds. So, you may want to consider the incorporation of tax free municipal bonds (but then with municipalities gong broke, be sure you look before your leap). Discuss tax management with your Advisor on the rest of your portfolio. Tax managed passive mutual funds have an extremely low tax impact.
2. You can't fool Mother Nature or the Capital Markets, they work: Turn on your TV any week-end and you will hear the "gurus" announcing which sectors or industries will boom under the Obama Administration and which will go bust. Academicians have shown over and again that such attempts to combine stock picking with market timing almost never outperform the broad market - the truth is they generally underperform. When they do outperform it is usually just plain luck rather than skill that can be exploited for profits and this it is not repeatable. Financial markets are essentially efficient and any attempt to regulate trade or change tax policy will end up being priced into the securities as soon as the news hits the wires.
3. Remove uncertainty by Diversification: Risk is really the uncertainty of future outcomes when investing. Diversification will reduce the uncertainty of a given portfolio. Lets assume you have a fund with 3500 stocks in it. A couple of those happen to be Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. With that many companies in your portfolio, you will hardly notice it as those two companies go out of existence. On the other hand, if you have a mutual fund of only financial companies, you will feel it big time. See what I mean? You can reduce the risk of uncertainty through very broad diversification.
4. Risk level and Return level are inseparable: Over longer time periods, stocks outperform bonds, but not in all time periods. Over longer time periods, bonds outperform cash, but not in all time periods. It is also true that small stocks, over time, outperform large stocks, but not in all time periods - and over time Value stocks outperform Growth stocks, but not in all time periods. To obtain the higher long term returns one must accept the higher risk of higher performing asset classes.
5. Portfolio Structure Determines Performance: Investing your portfolio along size, value and market exposure dimensions is primarily what determines the results of a diversified investment portfolio. To increase the expected results of your portfolio, own low cost, globally diversified asset class mutual funds that are over-weighted to small and more value oriented stocks. If a 100% stock portfolio is too risky for you, add some high quality short term bonds to it to reduce the volatility - of course, it will also reduce your expected return.
In order to win the loser's game, follow academically sound investment principles will allow you to win during an Obama Presidency. Don't give in to the Wall Street marketing gurus who have proven just how effective they are at separating you from your money, quickly and permanently. Can anybody say, Bernie Madoff? - 21511
About the Author:
Make sure you get your free copy of a Special Report by Charles L. Stanley CFP ChFC AIF titled "How to shield Yourself from being Madoff'd". This report contains simple steps for how to shield yourself from crooks like Bernie Madoff, the Wall street broker who allegedly ripped off his clients for $50 Billion. You don't have to let it happen to you. You can also find other materials at CharlesLStanley.com.
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